The dollar is going to have a hard time. Investor expectations for the Fed will run out of steam.

If you just analyze, historically, the chances of getting two quarters of more than a 5 percent gain in the dollar index, it has happened only two times since the '70s, so it's very rare.

A further significant upward shift in rate expectations seems unlikely in the near term given the current Fed language and the uncertainty about the strength of the data ahead of the March meeting.

They are going to tighten one last time in April. Risk on the economic growth is on the downside. This doesn't provide great reason for the bank to go further.

Data like this support the idea that not everything in the U.S. is strong. The Fed will require strong growth rate to keep going with rates.

It's a very long time since we've had so much uncertainty about a Fed meeting. That's what's making the situation so volatile.

You're likely to see Asian currencies participate even more.

The thing to watch now, once the 15 minutes' 'noise' after the number is out of the way, is whether there will be a resumption of the weak dollar trend.

When you have risk aversion in Japan, the normal day-to-day outflows that happen in a normal market environment slow down.

We also judge that the dollar is vulnerable from a structural perspective. External imbalances in the U.S. are not a key market focus at the moment, but this could change on signs of weakening flow support.